Crypto
Solana
SOL—Current priceloadingHyperliquid perpetual · SOL · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Solana, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 32% · 2817 up vs 6820 down scenarios
Solana leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 9,637 mapped scenarios that move Solana, 2,817 push it up and 6,820 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Solana lower is Funding-rate reset: overleveraged perps unwind in a long squeeze (event odds not yet verified; ~2.8% estimated impact on Solana if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Solana is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.3% chance of a lower close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -11.0% to +3.5% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 50.1% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Ether recovers toward old highbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 5.68% estimated impact if it hits
- Bitcoin doubles into blowoff topbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 6.8% estimated impact if it hits
- Funding-rate reset: overleveraged perps unwind in a long squeezebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -2.8% estimated impact if it hits
- Layer-2 token cascade crashbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -3.74% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score 0.57.
- Ether recovers toward old highEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 5.68% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Bitcoin doubles into blowoff topEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 6.8% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.73% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 50.1%, vol 9.45%, momentum z -0.70.
- Funding-rate reset: overleveraged perps unwind in a long squeezeEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.8% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Layer-2 token cascade crashEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -3.74% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Mega token-unlock cliff dumpEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -3.36% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
Loading chart…
Top scenarios that move Solana — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Solana up
| Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top | Odds not verified | +6.8% | 0–6 months |
| Ether recovers toward old high | Odds not verified | +5.7% | 6–18 months |
| Stablecoin GENIUS-Act rules go live, legitimizing dollar tokens | Odds not verified | +2.5% | 0–6 months |
| Spot-ETF and OCC custody mainstreaming entrenches the BTC bid | Odds not verified | +3.9% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,813 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Solana down
| Funding-rate reset: overleveraged perps unwind in a long squeeze | Odds not verified | −2.8% | 0–6 months |
| Cross-exchange liquidation cascade | Odds not verified | −4.8% | 0–6 months |
| Layer-2 token cascade crash | Odds not verified | −3.7% | 0–6 months |
| Mega token-unlock cliff dump | Odds not verified | −3.4% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,816 more down-scenarios in the library
Related Crypto: — · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →