What if China targets US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs and collapses US farm exports?
China and other partners target US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs, collapsing US farm export revenue and spiking domestic supply gluts as in 2018.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China and other partners target US soybeans, corn and pork with retaliatory tariffs, collapsing US farm export revenue and spiking domestic supply gluts as in 2018. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.