What if yen-carry liquidation spikes the VIX above 50 again?
An abrupt yen-carry liquidation spikes the VIX above 50 intraday and triggers cross-asset margin calls, replaying the 5 August 2024 global selloff in days.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An abrupt yen-carry liquidation spikes the VIX above 50 intraday and triggers cross-asset margin calls, replaying the 5 August 2024 global selloff in days. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.72–-0.17% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.08–+2.0% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -12.51–+1.94% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -7.89–+0.9% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -12.54–+1.07% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.76–-0.28% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.64–+1.01% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.28–+1.29% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–+0.07% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.57–-0.1% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.75–+1.37% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+0.83% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 14 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.08% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.1% · 5d -7.8% | 81% | 16 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.8% · 5d -6.0% | 77% | 22 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -2.3% | 72% | 39 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.0% | 68% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 38 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -4.4% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |