What if BoJ surprise hike snaps the global carry trade in a single session?
An unexpected BoJ rate hike triggers a violent one-session yen-carry unwind; risk-parity and carry funds de-lever, spiking the VIX and gapping global yields.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unexpected BoJ rate hike triggers a violent one-session yen-carry unwind; risk-parity and carry funds de-lever, spiking the VIX and gapping global yields. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.27–-0.01% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -11.66–+10.13% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.42–+0.69% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -6.03–+3.33% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.91–-0.11% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.95–+1.93% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.92–+0.41% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.92–+0.16% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.53–+-0.0% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -11.49–+16.8% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.11% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–+0.02% · other way +7.39% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.05% · other way +9.33% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.8% · 5d +4.4% | 80% | 5 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 18 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -5.0% | 62% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -6.4% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 18 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d +7.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |