What if the Bank of Japan intervenes to defend the yen past 165?
Smaller carry wobble: spot FX intervention past 165 buys time but not trend — USD/JPY dips modestly and carry receivers (AUD, EM FX) soften without a full unwind. Rhyme is the 2022 and Apr/Jul-2024 MOF/BOJ interventions, which produced sharp but short-lived yen pops that faded until the rate-differential actually narrowed. Forward angle: intervention treats the symptom, so the durable yen turn needs BOJ hikes or Fed cuts to close the gap; fade JPY strength on intervention alone — the carry stays intact until the rate spread moves.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The BOJ intervenes to defend the yen past 165/USD. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.33–+0.43% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.94–+0.22% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 32 | 0.22 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 30 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d 0bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 49% | 33 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
BOJ FX intervention recurrent at weak-yen extremes; 165 break plausible, 6mo window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.