What if China bans exports of all rare-earth magnets?
A total NdFeB magnet ban plus a tech-transfer cutoff is the maximal rare-earth weapon: it idles EV-motor, wind and missile lines, and the cleanest read is China megacaps and the semis/Nasdaq complex selling on supply-chain and retaliation risk while the yuan absorbs the brunt. Mirrors China's April 2025 rare-earth controls, which jolted defense and EV supply names. The West depends on China for ~90% of processed magnets; there is no near-term substitute. Forward angle: defense primes and ex-China magnet miners (MP, Lynas) are the asymmetric long the cascade omits.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China extends controls to all NdFeB magnets and cuts off processing technology, halting Western EV-motor, wind-turbine, and missile lines. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.75–-1.0% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.79–-0.94% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.66–-0.64% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.24–-0.55% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.2–-0.66% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.15–+1.31% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.51–+1.18% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.29–-0.21% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.83–+0.02% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.17–-0.47% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.87–+0.65% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.04–-0.29% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.13–+0.52% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.32–+0.94% · other way -1.21% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on COIN/MSTR/AVGO: their up-prints cluster in 2025 tariff/BTC-bull windows (regime contamination); XAU's +3.2% history actually agrees with safe-haven logic, so flag the cascade's gold short as the real error.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 74% | 36 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.7% | 66% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +3.2% | 63% | 19 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Total NdFeB ban plus tech cutoff is escalation China avoids; targeted licensing controls already the norm. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.