What if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?
Multinationals accelerate 'China+1' exits and FDI into China turns net-negative, pressuring the renminbi and slowing Chinese growth as decoupling becomes self-reinforcing.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Multinationals accelerate 'China+1' exits and FDI into China turns net-negative, pressuring the renminbi and slowing Chinese growth as decoupling becomes self-reinforcing. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.78–+3.41% · other way +2.39% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.59–-1.12% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.19–-0.81% · other way +2.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.77–-1.05% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -3.69–+0.05% · other way +4.93% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.35–-0.25% · other way +2.84% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.13–-0.15% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.34–-0.04% · other way +1.29% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -4.57–+0.64% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.82–+0.15% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.61–+0.67% · other way -2.48% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.74–+0.25% · other way -2.29% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.17–-0.19% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.29–-0.28% · other way +0.87% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -8.7% | 70% | 26 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.5% | 69% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 63% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.8% | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.6% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +2.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |