What if China-Japan Senkaku clash bids the JPY but tanks the Nikkei?
An armed Senkaku confrontation produces the paradox of a stronger haven yen alongside a falling export-heavy Nikkei; regional geopolitical risk and defense spend rise, global volatility climbs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An armed Senkaku confrontation produces the paradox of a stronger haven yen alongside a falling export-heavy Nikkei; regional geopolitical risk and defense spend rise, global volatility climbs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.2% hist +1.13–+7.99% · other way -7.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.11–-0.92% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.21–-0.19% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.1–-0.57% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.14–-0.5% · other way +23.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.12–-0.22% · other way +3.85% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.89–-0.02% · other way -3.36% (n=10) |
| 8 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.05–+1.7% · other way -4.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -6.2–+1.3% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 11 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.32–+2.15% · other way -2.22% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.85–+0.25% · other way +10.63% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.03–+1.2% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.55–-0.03% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 76% | 36 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.8% | 66% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +4.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.7% · 5d +3.5% | 62% | 19 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -6.9% | 64% | 20 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |