What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
Gallium/germanium controls are a Chinese near-monopoly (~90%+ of refined supply), so the real pinch is defense radar and compound-semis (RF GaN), not the broad Nasdaq the cascade leans on. When Beijing first weaponized these in 2023-24 and again in Dec-2024, spot Ga/Ge doubled but the SOX barely flinched — TSMC/Nvidia use little. Forward angle: this time it bites US/EU primes (LMT, RTX) more than logic fabs; the yuan move is overstated since China gains leverage, not loss.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. After the November 2026 suspension lapses, Beijing reinstates gallium and germanium export bans and extends them beyond the US, hitting chip and radar makers. :: The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Defense spending ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.41–-0.46% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.66–-0.65% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.03–-0.38% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.31–-0.53% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.94–+0.75% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.65–+0.89% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.25–+0.47% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.61–+0.15% · other way -2.25% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.44–+0.07% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.49–-0.12% · other way -1.42% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.92–-0.39% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.75–+0.8% · other way -3.71% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.01–-0.11% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.05–+0.71% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on AVGO: its +30%+ realized comes entirely from 2025 AI-capex bull windows — gallium-germanium curbs are real but second-order to AI demand driving the chip tape.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 70% | 36 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.6% | 70% | 29 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -6.8% | 68% | 18 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +5.0% | 63% | 18 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.6% | 63% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.6% | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Gallium/Ge controls are now a proven recurring tool; reimposition after lapse plausible but politically contingent on US deal. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.