What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
Beijing reinstating and globalizing its antimony export ban hits defense and ammunition supply chains — the clean move is antimony prices (already at records) and Western defense-input costs higher, plus a bid for ex-China supply; the Nasdaq/semis -2.9% cascade overstates the tech-index channel since antimony is a defense/flame-retardant, not chip, input. Rhymes with China's Sep-2024 antimony export controls that doubled prices and the 2010 rare-earth embargo. Forward angle: China controls ~half of mined and most refined antimony, so a global ban is a hard defense-supply weapon — the durable trade is antimony, Western critical-minerals/defense-stockpile equities, and pressure on ammunition makers, not a broad semis rout.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. After the November 2026 suspension lapses, Beijing reinstates its antimony export ban and extends it beyond the US, hitting defense supply chains. :: The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.0% hist -0.63–+6.99% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.56–-1.34% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -1.84–-1.06% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.65–-0.57% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.9–-0.69% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.88–-0.82% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.87–+0.37% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.51–+1.46% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.72–-0.11% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -3.48–+0.07% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.87–+0.12% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.93–-0.17% · other way -2.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.82–-0.08% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.09–-0.2% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on AVGO/MSTR: +30-65% analogues all cluster in the 2025 AI-capex and BTC bull — the antimony defense-chain hit is swamped by those idiosyncratic drivers, history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.1% · 5d +7.8% | 85% | 11 | 0.55 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 79% | 26 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 28 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.8% | 68% | 21 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.9% | 68% | 28 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 66% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.7% | 59% | 29 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Beijing's revealed pattern is reinstating/widening controls post-suspension; antimony a high-leverage defense lever. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.