What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
Beijing reinstating and globalizing its antimony export ban hits defense and ammunition supply chains — the clean move is antimony prices (already at records) and Western defense-input costs higher, plus a bid for ex-China supply; the Nasdaq/semis -2.9% cascade overstates the tech-index channel since antimony is a defense/flame-retardant, not chip, input. Rhymes with China's Sep-2024 antimony export controls that doubled prices and the 2010 rare-earth embargo. Forward angle: China controls ~half of mined and most refined antimony, so a global ban is a hard defense-supply weapon — the durable trade is antimony, Western critical-minerals/defense-stockpile equities, and pressure on ammunition makers, not a broad semis rout.
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The butterfly cascade
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. After the November 2026 suspension lapses, Beijing reinstates its antimony export ban and extends it beyond the US, hitting defense supply chains. :: The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.