What if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?
Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliatory tariff plus an unreliable-entity-list expansion, freezing US agricultural and aircraft exports overnight.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliatory tariff plus an unreliable-entity-list expansion, freezing US agricultural and aircraft exports overnight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.1% hist +1.46–+6.37% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.1% hist -3.21–-1.88% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.29–-0.45% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.02–-0.59% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.25–-0.53% · other way +2.98% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.73–-0.35% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.47–+1.87% · other way +30.6% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.83–-0.44% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.81–+2.25% · other way -2.27% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.93–-0.59% · other way +2.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.7–-0.6% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.4–+0.98% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.53–-0.11% · other way -2.87% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.56–+0.05% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +16.1% · 5d +5.8% | 82% | 10 | 0.56 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 74% | 25 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -10.1% ↺ fades | 73% | 10 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 67% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -7.0% | 67% | 18 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 26 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.2% | 64% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 25 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -0.9% | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.3% | 62% | 26 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |