What if China zeroes US soybean imports in retaliation?
Beijing shifts soybean demand fully to Brazil and bans US cargoes, collapsing US export basis and pressuring the ag complex and farm-state credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing shifts soybean demand fully to Brazil and bans US cargoes, collapsing US export basis and pressuring the ag complex and farm-state credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.18–-0.5% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.04–-0.08% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.72–+1.62% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.86–-0.3% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.24–+0.81% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.95–+0.54% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.03–+0.6% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.13–+1.19% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.01–+0.73% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.82–+0.35% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.78–+0.77% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -9.21–+2.37% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.74–+0.28% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.73–-0.09% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -3.4% | 81% | 39 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -6.1% | 71% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.7% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -8.4% | 64% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |