What if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?
Tightened US/allied export controls choke China's access to advanced chips and tools (extending the 2022-23 restrictions), hitting Chinese tech and AI ambitions and disrupting global semiconductor supply chains.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tightened US/allied export controls choke China's access to advanced chips and tools (extending the 2022-23 restrictions), hitting Chinese tech and AI ambitions and disrupting global semiconductor supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.5–-0.58% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -5.53–+0.15% · other way +3.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.01–-0.63% · other way +1.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.06–-0.26% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.27–-0.14% · other way -1.92% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.54–+0.58% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.04–-0.43% · other way +5.25% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.59–+0.57% · other way -2.96% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.91–+0.35% · other way -1.04% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.97–+0.02% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.24–-0.29% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.3–+0.97% · other way -3.99% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.82–-0.23% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -13.43–+2.71% · other way -17.18% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.2% | 75% | 36 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -12.6% | 69% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.6% | 61% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -4.2% | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |