What if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?
Blacklisting mature-node 14/28nm tools and pulling servicing licenses freezes China's trailing-edge buildout, hitting AMAT/LRCX/KLA revenue and lifting legacy-chip prices, while TSMC is a relative beneficiary - so the -4.4% TSMC print likely overshoots. Rhymes with the Oct-2022 BIS rules and the 2024 ASML booking-miss crash that hit equipment names hardest. China is ~30% of tool-maker sales; the forward angle is that mature nodes (autos, industrials) are where China is self-sufficient, so the supply-side price spike may outlast the equity dip.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US extends the equipment blacklist to mature-node 14/28nm tools and revokes China servicing licenses, freezing trailing-edge fabs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.