What if China expands critical-mineral export controls in retaliation for tech restrictions?
China expands export controls across critical minerals and processing in retaliation for tech restrictions, disrupting global clean-energy and defense supply chains and stoking input inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China expands export controls across critical minerals and processing in retaliation for tech restrictions, disrupting global clean-energy and defense supply chains and stoking input inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +0.63–+7.28% · other way -9.52% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.55–-1.39% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.75–-0.94% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.67–-0.7% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.59–-0.69% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.7–-0.06% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.5–+0.15% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.59–+1.33% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.19–+0.41% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.32–-0.26% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.84–+0.28% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.66–-0.09% · other way +2.72% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.01–+0.48% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.59–+0.02% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 33 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 35 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 33 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -5.7% | 62% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -8.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 58% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.7% | 57% | 17 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +7bp | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |