What if a global rearmament cycle surges demand for titanium, tungsten and rare earths?
A global rearmament cycle surges demand for titanium, tungsten, antimony and rare earths used in munitions and aerospace, spiking prices and exposing defense supply-chain mineral dependencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global rearmament cycle surges demand for titanium, tungsten, antimony and rare earths used in munitions and aerospace, spiking prices and exposing defense supply-chain mineral dependencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.0% hist -0.14–+7.22% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.57–-0.89% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.06–-0.4% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.06–-0.51% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 5 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.14–+1.44% · other way -4.66% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.92–-0.2% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.48–-0.1% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 8 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.15–+0.87% · other way +0.22% (n=11) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.6–+1.67% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.14–+1.58% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.74–+0.12% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.38–+0.28% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.56–-0.23% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.12–+0.68% · other way -3.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 74% | 36 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.7% | 66% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +3.2% | 63% | 19 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |