What if a coup in Egypt threatens transit through the Suez Canal?
Suez at risk is a freight-and-energy chokepoint shock, so the trade pairs a Brent-over-WTI bid with a tanker/container-rate spike as ships reroute around the Cape, plus equity vol on the growth tax. Direct rhyme is the Mar 2021 Ever Given grounding and the 2023-24 Houthi Red Sea diversions, which doubled some container rates and added ~10 days of transit. Forward angle: post-Houthi, much traffic already avoids the canal, so the marginal oil-price shock from an Egypt event is smaller than the headline implies — the bigger hit is shipping cost and lead times.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coup in Egypt threatens control and transit through the Suez Canal. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.