What if an oil spike and weak yen blow out Japan's import bill and lift bank credit costs?
An oil or LNG price spike plus a weak yen blows out Japan's import bill, squeezing energy-intensive corporates and lifting bank credit costs across manufacturing and transport borrowers exposed to imported-energy inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An oil or LNG price spike plus a weak yen blows out Japan's import bill, squeezing energy-intensive corporates and lifting bank credit costs across manufacturing and transport borrowers exposed to imported-energy inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -1.71–+1.44% · other way -4.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.9% hist -3.13–+1.4% · other way -4.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.83–+0.8% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.33–+3.04% · other way +32.01% (n=12) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.75–+3.45% · other way +11.69% (n=12) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.34–+0.61% · other way -2.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.44–-0.26% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.26–+1.53% · other way +8.96% (n=11) |
| 9 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.02–+0.66% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 10 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.0–+3.3% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.42% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.84–+0.01% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.14% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.58–+0.44% · other way -2.33% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +4.6% | 74% | 18 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 32 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 32 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 32 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.4% | 63% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 18 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 63% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +8.0% | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |