What if Failed yen intervention accelerates the slide and a carry blow-off?
A one-off intervention fails to hold the line and emboldens shorts, sending USDJPY higher and feeding a delayed, more violent carry unwind once positioning finally breaks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A one-off intervention fails to hold the line and emboldens shorts, sending USDJPY higher and feeding a delayed, more violent carry unwind once positioning finally breaks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -8.19–+1.42% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.0–+0.04% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.53–+0.83% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.65–-0.08% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.23–+1.65% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.22–+3.26% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.84–+2.75% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.11% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.82–+1.13% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.21–+0.41% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.39–-0.05% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.12–+0.06% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–+0.02% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -6.8% | 80% | 10 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 72% | 25 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 27 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +-0.0% | 67% | 27 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.1% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -7.1% | 67% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |