What if extended French nuclear outages turn France into a net power importer?
Extended corrosion-related outages across the French nuclear fleet cut baseload supply, turning France into a net power importer and spiking European electricity prices as in 2022.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Extended corrosion-related outages across the French nuclear fleet cut baseload supply, turning France into a net power importer and spiking European electricity prices as in 2022. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.63–+0.73% · other way -1.01% (n=12) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.11–+0.17% · other way -0.92% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–+0.67% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.78–+1.12% · other way +30.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.98–+6.78% · other way -0.88% (n=11) |
| 6 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.4% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+1.35% · other way +8.97% (n=11) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.49–+1.62% · other way -6.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.59–+0.35% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–-0.04% · other way +6.43% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+0.27% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.16–+5.43% · other way +4.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.84% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 69% | 34 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 32 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 65% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.6% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 65% | 17 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +6.0% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +1.0% | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 43% | 23 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -3.0% | 41% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 44% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |