What if Germany's export model stalls on weak Chinese demand, US tariffs and high energy costs?
Germany's export model stalls as Chinese demand weakens, US tariffs bite and competitiveness erodes on high energy costs, cutting net trade's contribution to GDP to negative.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Germany's export model stalls as Chinese demand weakens, US tariffs bite and competitiveness erodes on high energy costs, cutting net trade's contribution to GDP to negative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.1–-0.61% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.14–-0.45% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.88–+0.06% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.69–+0.84% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.79–+0.0% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.16% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.34–-0.09% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.71–-0.21% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.39–+0.23% · other way +1.82% (n=11) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.65–-0.26% · other way -1.4% (n=11) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.83–+0.29% · other way +2.33% (n=11) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.6–-0.26% · other way +1.6% (n=11) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.09–-0.06% · other way +3.24% (n=11) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.9–+0.37% · other way -1.86% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -6.3% | 65% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -13.6% | 62% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |