What if the EV transition, Chinese competition and tariffs cut German vehicle output sharply?
A combined EV-transition squeeze, Chinese competition and tariff exposure cuts German vehicle output sharply, dragging the auto supply chain and Mittelstand suppliers into contraction.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A combined EV-transition squeeze, Chinese competition and tariff exposure cuts German vehicle output sharply, dragging the auto supply chain and Mittelstand suppliers into contraction. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.91–-0.5% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.68–+0.85% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.93–-0.32% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.74–+0.14% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.62–+0.1% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.65–-0.07% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.2–-0.01% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.36–+0.25% · other way +1.82% (n=11) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–-0.15% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.79–+0.43% · other way -1.86% (n=11) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.54–-0.19% · other way -1.4% (n=11) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.72–+0.36% · other way +2.33% (n=11) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–-0.2% · other way +1.6% (n=11) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–+0.01% · other way +3.24% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.8% | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -6.3% | 65% | 26 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -13.6% | 62% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |