What if Germany's industrial production falls more than 8% as energy costs and China demand weaken?
Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing base contracts sharply as elevated gas costs and weak Chinese demand push industrial production down over 8% year-on-year, deepening a second consecutive year of recession.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing base contracts sharply as elevated gas costs and weak Chinese demand push industrial production down over 8% year-on-year, deepening a second consecutive year of recession. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.