What if Germany's industrial production falls more than 8% as energy costs and China demand weaken?
Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing base contracts sharply as elevated gas costs and weak Chinese demand push industrial production down over 8% year-on-year, deepening a second consecutive year of recession.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing base contracts sharply as elevated gas costs and weak Chinese demand push industrial production down over 8% year-on-year, deepening a second consecutive year of recession. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.55–+0.07% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.25–+0.14% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 3 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+-0.0% · other way +0.58% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.4–+0.02% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.1–+1.5% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–+0.2% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.03–+0.4% · other way -7.85% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–+0.06% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.59–+2.15% · other way +3.35% (n=10) |
| 11 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.05–+0.55% · other way +0.68% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.03–+1.13% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 13 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.48–+0.08% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 14 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.34–+0.29% · other way +3.91% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.9% | 63% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -13.2% | 62% | 23 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.6% | 60% | 26 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.0% | 58% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |