What if Hormuz tanker attacks reopen the war-risk bid?
A fresh wave of limpet-mine and drone attacks on Gulf tankers forces insurers to reprice transit, lifting the Brent-Dubai war premium and freight rates sharply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh wave of limpet-mine and drone attacks on Gulf tankers forces insurers to reprice transit, lifting the Brent-Dubai war premium and freight rates sharply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.2% hist +1.28–+6.92% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.6% hist -2.06–-1.12% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +1.05–+2.34% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.67–+1.9% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.74–-0.9% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.92–-0.39% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.55–+2.42% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.49–+1.89% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.01–+0.19% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.13–-0.22% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.63–+4.57% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.01–+2.02% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.92–+0.03% · other way +9.86% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 31 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +9bp | 67% | 40 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.6% | 70% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +7.0% | 66% | 32 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 31 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.6% | 64% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +1.3% | 63% | 24 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +0.1% | 63% | 24 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 31 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |