What if a fire strikes Reliance's giant Jamnagar refinery?
A major Jamnagar fire removes the world's largest single-site refinery (~1.4 Mbd), tightening global product markets (gasoline, diesel, jet) far more than crude, which softens as runs fall; the cleaner trade is long product cracks, and the up-leg in flat Brent here is questionable. Rhymes with large unplanned refinery outages (e.g. 2019 Pemex/US events) where cracks spiked but crude eased on lost demand. Transmission: Reliance is a top exporter to Europe and the US East Coast; forward angle: this is a refining-margin event, so a crude-supply-risk root overstates flat-price upside.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major fire at Reliance's Jamnagar refining hub removes the world's largest single-site export source. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ · Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.