What if a fire strikes Reliance's giant Jamnagar refinery?
A major Jamnagar fire removes the world's largest single-site refinery (~1.4 Mbd), tightening global product markets (gasoline, diesel, jet) far more than crude, which softens as runs fall; the cleaner trade is long product cracks, and the up-leg in flat Brent here is questionable. Rhymes with large unplanned refinery outages (e.g. 2019 Pemex/US events) where cracks spiked but crude eased on lost demand. Transmission: Reliance is a top exporter to Europe and the US East Coast; forward angle: this is a refining-margin event, so a crude-supply-risk root overstates flat-price upside.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major fire at Reliance's Jamnagar refining hub removes the world's largest single-site export source. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ · Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.02–+0.88% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.12–+1.12% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.33–+1.62% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.41–+6.26% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.62–+2.36% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.4–+1.79% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.05–+2.86% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -5.52–+18.19% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.52–+18.19% · other way +6.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade LONG on CL/BRENT: Jamnagar is a supply outage, but history's negative abn-ret is dominated by demand-shock analogues (2014/2020 price wars) — regime-mismatched; UAL/DAL's positives are stale 2024-25 relief rallies.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.9% | 56% | 30 | 0.09 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 31 | 0.08 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 54% | 31 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.1% | 52% | 31 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 31 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Jamnagar highly reliable; major output-removing fire extremely rare for flagship complex. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.