What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
A Power of Siberia rupture halts ~weeks of piped Russian gas to China, who backfills with extra LNG imports, tightening JKM and Asian gas while crude is largely a bystander; the equity/VIX cascade here overstates a contained pipeline event. Rhymes with periodic ESPO/pipeline outages that lifted Chinese LNG buying without moving Brent. Transmission: Russia is China's swing piped-gas supplier (~the bulk of overland gas). The current roots use an invalid 'NG' token and an oversized China-growth drag; the real channel is global gas tightness, best mapped to european_energy with a small China and risk tilt.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Power of Siberia explosion in permafrost halts Russian piped gas to China for weeks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · China growth ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.