What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
A Power of Siberia rupture halts ~weeks of piped Russian gas to China, who backfills with extra LNG imports, tightening JKM and Asian gas while crude is largely a bystander; the equity/VIX cascade here overstates a contained pipeline event. Rhymes with periodic ESPO/pipeline outages that lifted Chinese LNG buying without moving Brent. Transmission: Russia is China's swing piped-gas supplier (~the bulk of overland gas). The current roots use an invalid 'NG' token and an oversized China-growth drag; the real channel is global gas tightness, best mapped to european_energy with a small China and risk tilt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Power of Siberia explosion in permafrost halts Russian piped gas to China for weeks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · China growth ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.09–+1.99% · other way -9.5% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.15–-0.02% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–-0.02% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.19% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.04–+0.51% · other way +0.58% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.04–+1.65% · other way +11.59% (n=12) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+0.08% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.0–+0.23% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.44–+0.84% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.9–+2.53% · other way -3.78% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.58–+1.48% · other way +7.98% (n=11) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.07–+0.57% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–+0.16% · other way +0.12% (n=11) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.29–+0.72% · other way +7.49% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade SHORT: AVGO/XLK/SMH's small positive history is AI-capex beta and MSTR's +17% is BTC's structural bull — the dominant idiosyncratic driver swamps this Siberia gas channel, which is second-order.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.6% | 65% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -6.3% | 65% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.8% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.9% | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Power of Siberia rupture novel; permafrost risk real but weeks-long China cutoff rare. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.