What if China's near-total control of rare-earth processing leaves Western magnet supply hostage?
Even with diversified mining, the near-total concentration of rare-earth separation/processing in China leaves Western magnet supply hostage to Chinese policy, an IEA/NGFS midstream-dependency scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Even with diversified mining, the near-total concentration of rare-earth separation/processing in China leaves Western magnet supply hostage to Chinese policy, an IEA/NGFS midstream-dependency scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +0.3–+6.33% · other way -5.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.6% hist -2.12–-0.97% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.07–-0.68% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.28–+0.01% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.74–-0.59% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.66–-0.88% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.69–+0.63% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.81–+0.85% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.33–-0.25% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.02–-0.23% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.52–-0.46% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.69–+0.85% · other way -3.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.74–-0.37% · other way -2.76% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.18–-0.17% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.5% | 68% | 32 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.4% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 37 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -7.4% | 59% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |