What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps policy tight against sticky inflation, lifting the Aussie and front-end rates while pressuring rate-sensitive domestic risk on the higher-for-longer signal.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps policy tight against sticky inflation, lifting the Aussie and front-end rates while pressuring rate-sensitive domestic risk on the higher-for-longer signal. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.57–+2.82% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.08–+0.03% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.93–-0.17% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -15.59–+17.0% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -8.54–+23.57% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.55–+3.55% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.83–+1.05% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -12.62–+24.98% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.08–+4.77% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.82–+1.08% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -11.68–+11.61% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.54–+1.81% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.3% | 85% | 6 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +20bp · 5d +4bp | 74% | 11 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.4% | 85% | 6 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 78% | 4 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +18.9% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 4 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +23bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 12 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -8.7% | 62% | 6 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +12.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 3 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 3 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -5.8% | 55% | 5 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.7% | 52% | 12 | 0.04 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 8 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.4% | 46% | 6 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |