What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
A sharp escalation widens the conflict toward NATO's edge, spiking the geopolitical-risk and energy premia and forcing another leg of defense spending.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp escalation widens the conflict toward NATO's edge, spiking the geopolitical-risk and energy premia and forcing another leg of defense spending. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.3% hist +2.27–+6.43% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.1% hist -2.4–-0.9% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.81–-1.03% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.61–-0.75% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 5 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.83–+1.53% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.38–+1.11% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 7 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.81–+1.6% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.04–+3.33% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.34–-0.53% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.51–+3.92% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.44–+0.65% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
| 13 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.27–+2.54% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.16–+0.52% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.9% | 74% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +4.1% | 71% | 18 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -7.1% | 65% | 9 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.9% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |