What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
A durable ceasefire reopens energy flows and reconstruction; European gas eases, the war premium drains from risk assets and EUR and cyclicals rally.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable ceasefire reopens energy flows and reconstruction; European gas eases, the war premium drains from risk assets and EUR and cyclicals rally. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -8.0% hist -14.49–+1.93% · other way +0.74% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +3.5% hist +1.44–+3.43% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.9–+1.95% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.11–+2.54% · other way -1.6% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.43–+7.18% · other way +5.46% (n=11) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.15–+0.54% · other way +0.93% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.6% hist -1.27–+4.14% · other way +4.7% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.45–+1.92% · other way -1.65% (n=11) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.54–+0.27% · other way +0.56% (n=11) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.32–+1.48% · other way +1.0% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -4.76–+7.04% · other way +1.13% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.65–+2.17% · other way -2.72% (n=11) |
| 14 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.15–+0.07% · other way +2.06% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 75% | 9 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 13 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -4.8% | 75% | 11 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 72% | 13 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 70% | 9 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 9 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -6.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +1.7% | 75% | 9 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 10 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 13 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 9 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 10 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |