What if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?
Outright confiscation (not just freezing) of Russian CBR assets is the precedent-setter: it tells every sovereign reserve manager that USTs are politically contingent, lifting the 30y and bidding gold/BTC while DXY softens. The 2022 freeze already moved gold; seizure is the larger step the same direction. EM and Gulf surplus recyclers fund the US Treasury; at the margin they diversify into gold and non-G7 paper. Forward angle: the hit is to term premium and reserve composition over quarters, not a same-day dollar rout — fade knee-jerk DXY spikes.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. G7 seizes 300 billion in frozen Russian central-bank assets for Ukraine, spooking sovereign reserve managers worldwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.