What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?
A Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions, freezing a large share of global trade and finance in a fragmentation shock dwarfing the Russia precedent.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions, freezing a large share of global trade and finance in a fragmentation shock dwarfing the Russia precedent. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +12.8% hist +3.22–+11.14% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -8.1% hist -5.01–-2.56% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.5% hist -3.33–-1.45% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.9% hist -2.83–-0.34% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.4% hist -2.96–-1.16% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.8–-0.67% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -3.6% hist -6.5–+0.72% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.67–-1.03% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.12–-0.97% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.63–+0.3% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -1.88–+1.85% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.27–-0.04% · other way +4.09% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.3–-0.59% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.7% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.1% · 5d +7.7% | 82% | 10 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -7.1% | 70% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 39 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 32 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +5bp | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -4.1% | 59% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |