What if the US and EU impose steep tariffs on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs?
The US and EU erect steep tariffs and anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs, repricing the clean-energy supply chain and slowing the transition.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The US and EU erect steep tariffs and anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar modules, batteries and EVs, repricing the clean-energy supply chain and slowing the transition. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.3% hist +0.69–+6.91% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.4% hist -2.82–-1.34% · other way -0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.99–-0.78% · other way +3.27% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.63–-0.41% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.66–-0.08% · other way +6.07% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.46–-0.27% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.39–-0.28% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.51–+1.51% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.33–-0.2% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.41–-0.6% · other way +3.52% (n=11) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.32–+0.31% · other way +30.92% (n=11) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.64–+0.52% · other way -3.28% (n=10) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.01–+0.31% · other way -1.77% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.25–-0.42% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 72% | 34 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 35 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -5.8% | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.6% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +2.4% | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 30 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |