What if South China Sea tanker incident spikes Brent war-risk premium?
An attack or seizure of a commercial tanker in contested waters forces reroutes and higher insurance; Brent and JKM climb, regional currencies soften, VIX rises on chokepoint fear.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An attack or seizure of a commercial tanker in contested waters forces reroutes and higher insurance; Brent and JKM climb, regional currencies soften, VIX rises on chokepoint fear. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.3% hist +0.67–+4.68% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.37–-0.73% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.18–+2.07% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -3.1–+1.88% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.37–-0.59% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.51–-0.27% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.63–+1.15% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.85–+1.43% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.4–+0.46% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.82–-0.31% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.36–+0.43% · other way +8.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.25–+1.22% · other way -2.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.12–+1.19% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +2.5% | 70% | 15 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 15 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |