What if Stable BoJ path and reflation pull global funds into Japan?
A credible, gradual normalization plus durable reflation make Japan a relative haven for global allocators; the Nikkei and JPY firm modestly, supporting a constructive global risk tone.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A credible, gradual normalization plus durable reflation make Japan a relative haven for global allocators; the Nikkei and JPY firm modestly, supporting a constructive global risk tone. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.61–+0.88% · other way +24.08% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -7.87–+2.45% · other way +8.76% (n=11) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -7.42–+2.4% · other way +5.0% (n=8) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.01–+0.64% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.06–+0.97% · other way +5.29% (n=8) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.84–+0.16% · other way -4.71% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.53–+1.61% · other way +0.7% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.23–+0.86% · other way +1.2% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.13–+0.66% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.97–+0.94% · other way -0.14% (n=10) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.24–+0.78% · other way +7.5% (n=11) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.86–+0.35% · other way +0.65% (n=10) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.56–+0.37% · other way +4.95% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -0.5% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 57% | 30 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 31 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |