What if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?
A sharp escalation of mutual tech restrictions disrupts global electronics supply chains both ways, raising costs for Western firms while throttling Chinese tech output and employment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp escalation of mutual tech restrictions disrupts global electronics supply chains both ways, raising costs for Western firms while throttling Chinese tech output and employment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.54–-0.32% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -5.35–+0.28% · other way +2.74% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.65–-0.63% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.4–-0.37% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.01–-0.14% · other way -2.26% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.49–+0.14% · other way -1.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.23–+0.1% · other way -2.47% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.06–-0.24% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.91–-0.53% · other way -3.82% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.89–-0.07% · other way -1.09% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.96–-0.28% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.94–-0.16% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.9–+0.9% · other way -4.59% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.2–+0.79% · other way -4.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d +2.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.8% · 5d -11.8% | 65% | 26 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -4.3% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |