What if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?
A US–China tariff exchange escalates in successive rounds past 100% on targeted goods, with Beijing matching each move, replaying the 2018–19 escalation at far larger scale.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US–China tariff exchange escalates in successive rounds past 100% on targeted goods, with Beijing matching each move, replaying the 2018–19 escalation at far larger scale. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.2% hist +1.55–+6.37% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.3% hist -3.17–-1.9% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.31–-0.58% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.0–-0.69% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.87–-0.73% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.74–-0.49% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.61–+3.21% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.69–-0.37% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.57–+1.82% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.96–-0.13% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.14–-0.03% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.79–+0.75% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.86–-0.01% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.9–-0.29% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 82% | 21 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 21 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 22 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.3% | 64% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 21 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |