What if Ukraine transit deal keeps some Russian gas flowing?
A negotiated transit arrangement preserves limited Russian gas flows to Central Europe under a ceasefire, capping TTF and easing the EU energy-security premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A negotiated transit arrangement preserves limited Russian gas flows to Central Europe under a ceasefire, capping TTF and easing the EU energy-security premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.44–-0.16% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.16–+0.84% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.68–+0.46% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.06–+2.25% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.28–+13.23% · other way +5.58% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.46–+1.74% · other way +9.99% (n=9) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.07–+0.46% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.02–+0.66% · other way +2.47% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.21–+1.15% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.46–+1.46% · other way +11.39% (n=9) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.4–+0.17% · other way +0.93% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.1% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.01–+0.22% · other way +0.65% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +4.8% · 5d +0.4% | 82% | 40 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.4% | 75% | 40 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +6bp | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 74% | 39 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 75% | 38 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 40 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -4.3% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.4% · 5d +1.5% | 62% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |