What if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?
Tariff-rollback risk-on: a US-China detente lifts the most tariff-exposed names — semis, Nasdaq, China megacaps (BABA) — and bids the yuan as trade-war drag lifts. Rhyme is the Jan-2020 Phase One signing, which rallied semis and CNY before COVID overwhelmed it. Transmission: China is the export hub and bears the adjustment via CNY, while US tech reclaims supply-chain certainty; forward angle — tariffs are now structurally higher post-2025 100%+ peak, so a 'comprehensive' rollback is a bigger positive surprise than 2019-20, but credibility/durability is the catch — fade if it's a truce, not a treaty.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The US and China announce a comprehensive trade détente and tariff rollback. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · China growth ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -5.3% hist -4.35–-1.42% · other way -6.67% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +4.7% hist +0.79–+2.52% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.8% hist +1.35–+2.36% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.3% hist +0.21–+1.39% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.2% hist +0.82–+2.74% · other way -2.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.62–+2.03% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist -3.13–+2.03% · other way -2.82% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.32–+2.86% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.36–+1.68% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.04–+1.79% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist +0.26–+2.51% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.3% hist -2.12–+1.61% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.06–+0.66% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist -2.9–+0.96% · other way -3.11% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history's short on ETH: n=12, 0.93 hit, clean on-channel tariff/trade windows (2018-19 + 2025) all printed -7 to -26% — the cascade's risk-on long over-reaches a numerous, recent sample.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 73% | 40 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +2bp | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.0% | 73% | 40 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.0% | 71% | 40 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 68% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -8.8% | 66% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
US-China truces already recurring (Geneva, extensions); comprehensive rollback harder; 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.