What if hurricane outages on the US Gulf Coast spike diesel and gasoline cracks ahead of peak demand?
Hurricane or accident outages on the US Gulf Coast cut refining capacity, spiking diesel and gasoline cracks and tightening product supply ahead of peak demand.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Hurricane or accident outages on the US Gulf Coast cut refining capacity, spiking diesel and gasoline cracks and tightening product supply ahead of peak demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.