What if US stockpiles and price floors de-risk rare earths?
A US strategic rare-earth reserve plus magnet price floors guarantee Western offtake, neutralizing China's export weapon and supporting allied EV and defense supply chains.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A US strategic rare-earth reserve plus magnet price floors guarantee Western offtake, neutralizing China's export weapon and supporting allied EV and defense supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.42–+0.73% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.19–+0.89% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.21–+0.63% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.1–+1.28% · other way +1.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.03–+0.57% · other way +0.52% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.22–+1.21% · other way +1.0% (n=6) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.1% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.78–+3.33% · other way +1.54% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.18–+1.21% · other way +1.85% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.09–+0.33% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.14–+0.58% · other way +0.44% (n=8) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.02–+9.27% · other way -4.79% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.75–+1.14% · other way -3.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.8% · 5d +3.3% | 85% | 13 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +22bp · 5d +11bp | 72% | 33 | 0.42 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.8% | 73% | 29 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.5% | 74% | 19 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 23 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 69% | 33 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 71% | 21 | 0.31 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 67% | 21 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 19 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 21 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.9% | 61% | 23 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |