What if an unexpectedly strong shunto wage round forces the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes?
An unexpectedly strong shunto wage round entrenches inflation above target, forcing the BoJ to accelerate normalization beyond market pricing and triggering an abrupt JGB and yen repricing that hits bank books.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unexpectedly strong shunto wage round entrenches inflation above target, forcing the BoJ to accelerate normalization beyond market pricing and triggering an abrupt JGB and yen repricing that hits bank books. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.86–-0.26% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.72–-0.39% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.36–+5.06% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist +0.62–+12.18% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.67–-0.01% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +9bp hist +1.19–+9.65% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.98–+0.36% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.77–+0.67% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.51–+0.96% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 11 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -7.54–+1.47% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 12 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–+0.1% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 13 | Robinhood HOODon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.34–+4.98% · other way +19.04% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.3–+3.9% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.3% | 71% | 37 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -6.7% | 69% | 26 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.3% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +6.3% | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.0% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -6.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +3.3% | 53% | 35 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |