What if Yen-funded carry book rotates fresh leverage into EM high-yielders?
A stable-to-weak yen and quiet BoJ reignite JPY-funded carry, channelling borrowed yen into the top EM real-rate currencies and turbo-charging local-debt inflows.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A stable-to-weak yen and quiet BoJ reignite JPY-funded carry, channelling borrowed yen into the top EM real-rate currencies and turbo-charging local-debt inflows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.