What if the yen panics past 175 to the dollar?
USDJPY through 175 forcing chaotic MOF intervention is a volatility event: long-vol and short high-beta (SOL, Nasdaq) is the trade as the yen snaps back violently and global risk de-grosses. Rhymes with Sept-2022 BOJ/MOF intervention and the Aug-2024 unwind — intervention spikes realized vol and triggers a risk-asset air-pocket. Transmission runs through Japan as the world's largest creditor: a repatriation impulse tightens global dollar liquidity. Forward: reserves are ample but a 175 print signals intervention is failing, the real tail.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. USDJPY spikes through 175 on policy divergence, forcing chaotic MOF intervention and a violent risk-asset unwind. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.