What if the yen loses its safe-haven status and no longer rallies during global risk-off?
Persistent twin deficits and lost rate-anchoring erode the yen's safe-haven status, so it no longer rallies in global risk-off, removing a natural hedge and exposing Japanese exporters and the economy to one-sided depreciation risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistent twin deficits and lost rate-anchoring erode the yen's safe-haven status, so it no longer rallies in global risk-off, removing a natural hedge and exposing Japanese exporters and the economy to one-sided depreciation risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -7.49–+1.37% · other way +13.43% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.66–+0.19% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.45–+0.76% · other way +5.05% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.28–+1.52% · other way -2.88% (n=9) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.38–+3.06% · other way +15.12% (n=9) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.53–+2.64% · other way -1.48% (n=10) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.33–+0.55% · other way +1.47% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.14–+0.03% · other way -1.98% (n=12) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.95–+2.22% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.16% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.75–-0.04% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.09–+0.13% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -2.32–-1.25% · other way -6.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 72% | 19 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 19 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 64% | 19 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -7.6% | 64% | 12 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 20 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -5.2% | 58% | 21 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 20 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d -1bp | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +4.8% | 56% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -5.4% | 52% | 16 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |