Rates
30y Treasury yield
DGS305.2620%Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for 30y Treasury yield, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 31% · 2197 up vs 1009 down scenarios
30y Treasury yield leans higher near-term — a lean. Of the 3,206 mapped scenarios that move 30y Treasury yield, 2,197 push it up and 1,009 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing 30y Treasury yield higher is Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields (event odds not yet verified; ~0.1% estimated impact on 30y Treasury yield if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
30y Treasury yield slightly higher over the next 7 days: 55.7% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.0% to +2.5% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 54.8% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Treasury auction tail shockbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.07% estimated impact if it hits
- Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yieldsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.11% estimated impact if it hits
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.06% estimated impact if it hits
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.14% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 54.8%, vol 2.75%, momentum z 0.22.
- Treasury auction tail shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.07% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yieldsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.11% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLINGEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.16% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.06% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.14% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Synchronized EM FX defenseEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.13% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
Loading chart…
Top scenarios that move 30y Treasury yield — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes 30y Treasury yield up
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Treasury auction tail shock | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,193 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes 30y Treasury yield down
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 1–3 years |
| DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,005 more down-scenarios in the library
Related Rates: — · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →