What if Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING?
An Iran supply shock lifts Brent past $130 while the Fed signals it will not cut into the inflation spike, pushing real yields up and pulling gold lower despite the geopolitical fear.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An Iran supply shock lifts Brent past $130 while the Fed signals it will not cut into the inflation spike, pushing real yields up and pulling gold lower despite the geopolitical fear. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.