Rates

2y Treasury yield

DGS2

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves 2y Treasury yield, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans HIGHER conviction 47% · 850 up vs 305 down scenarios

2y Treasury yield leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 1,155 mapped scenarios that move 2y Treasury yield, 850 push it up and 305 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing 2y Treasury yield higher is Syndicator bridge-loan implosion (43% likely, ~0.1% on 2y Treasury yield). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the up-lean: BoC cuts far below Fed (30% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Every scenario that moves 2y Treasury yield — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes 2y Treasury yield up

Syndicator bridge-loan implosion	43%	+0.1%	0–6 months
Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold	27%	+0.1%	0–6 months
BCB hikes Selic to 16%	29%	+0.1%	0–6 months
Norges Bank hikes alone	23%	+0.1%	0–6 months

+ 846 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes 2y Treasury yield down

BoC cuts far below Fed	30%	−0.1%	0–6 months
Fed quietly expands balance sheet	34%	−0.1%	0–6 months
Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing	40%	−0.0%	0–6 months
Payrolls revised deeply negative	28%	−0.0%	0–6 months

+ 301 more down-scenarios in the library