Indices
KOSPI 200
KR200—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:KR200 · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for KOSPI 200, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 9% · 46 up vs 56 down scenarios
KOSPI 200 is two-sided near-term — finely balanced. Of the 102 mapped scenarios that move KOSPI 200, 46 push it up and 56 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews neither way. The single biggest swing factor is China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3% (event odds not yet verified; ~0.2% estimated impact on KOSPI 200 if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
KOSPI 200 leans higher over the next 7 days: 58.8% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.6% to +3.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 58.3% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-onbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.26% estimated impact if it hits
- India stays the fastest-growing major economy at 7%+bullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.18% estimated impact if it hits
- EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and techbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.22% estimated impact if it hits
- US revokes China's permanent normal trade statusbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.18% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 58.3%, vol 3.88%, momentum z 0.53.
- Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-onEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.26% mapped move if the event occurs.
- India stays the fastest-growing major economy at 7%+Event odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.18% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Poland EU-funds peak fuels a 3.5% growth boomEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.16% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.31.
- EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and techEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.22% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US revokes China's permanent normal trade statusEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.18% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Trade-war fragmentation tips global growth lowerEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.26% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move KOSPI 200 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes KOSPI 200 up
| Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on | Odds not verified | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| West African power pool ends chronic electricity deficit | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 3–10 years |
| India stays the fastest-growing major economy at 7%+ | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 6–18 months |
| Mexico becomes North America's manufacturing core | Odds not verified | +0.2% | 3–10 years |
+ 42 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes KOSPI 200 down
| EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and tech | Odds not verified | −0.2% | 0–6 months |
| China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3% | Odds not verified | −0.2% | 3–10 years |
| US revokes China's permanent normal trade status | Odds not verified | −0.2% | 0–6 months |
| German energy-cost deindustrialization | Odds not verified | −0.2% | 1–3 years |
+ 52 more down-scenarios in the library
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