Indices
KOSPI 200
KR2008,303← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves KOSPI 200, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 10% · 46 up vs 56 down scenarios
KOSPI 200 is two-sided near-term — finely balanced. Of the 102 mapped scenarios that move KOSPI 200, 46 push it up and 56 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews neither way. The single biggest swing factor is China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3% (42% likely, ~0.2% on KOSPI 200). Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves KOSPI 200 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes KOSPI 200 up
| Global tariff de-escalation ignites risk-on | 37% | +0.3% | 6–18 months |
| West African power pool ends chronic electricity deficit | 56% | +0.2% | 3–10 years |
| India stays the fastest-growing major economy at 7%+ | 50% | +0.2% | 6–18 months |
| Mexico becomes North America's manufacturing core | 54% | +0.2% | 3–10 years |
+ 42 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes KOSPI 200 down
| EU-US tariff war erupts over autos and tech | 22% | −0.2% | 0–6 months |
| China grows old before rich, trend GDP stalls toward 3% | 42% | −0.2% | 3–10 years |
| US revokes China's permanent normal trade status | 25% | −0.2% | 0–6 months |
| German energy-cost deindustrialization | 49% | −0.2% | 1–3 years |
+ 52 more down-scenarios in the library
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