What if BOJ exits NIRP and YCC in one disorderly JGB-yield tantrum?
A simultaneous removal of negative rates and the yield-curve cap overshoots, spiking JGB yields and the yen as a global carry unwind drags risk parity and high-beta assets lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A simultaneous removal of negative rates and the yield-curve cap overshoots, spiking JGB yields and the yen as a global carry unwind drags risk parity and high-beta assets lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.92–-0.46% · other way +1.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -5.66–+1.37% · other way +15.48% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -2.31–+1.71% · other way -7.72% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.83–+3.66% · other way +7.6% (n=8) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.6–-0.33% · other way +2.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.47–-0.28% · other way +1.93% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.45–+1.94% · other way +7.67% (n=9) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.69–+0.91% · other way +6.1% (n=9) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.5–+6.73% · other way +15.52% (n=6) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–-0.03% · other way -1.37% (n=11) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–+0.2% · other way +3.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.32–+1.22% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.83–+0.09% · other way -0.71% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 68% | 32 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.4% | 63% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +2.7% | 62% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.5% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.6% | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |