What if BOJ exits NIRP and YCC in one disorderly JGB-yield tantrum?
A simultaneous removal of negative rates and the yield-curve cap overshoots, spiking JGB yields and the yen as a global carry unwind drags risk parity and high-beta assets lower.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A simultaneous removal of negative rates and the yield-curve cap overshoots, spiking JGB yields and the yen as a global carry unwind drags risk parity and high-beta assets lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.